The Fed Agent

Analyzes central bank policy decisions and macroeconomic data through integrated frameworks to assess policy stance, inflation outlook, and market implications.

Usage

the-fed-agent <news_url>

The skill fetches the news URL and produces a structured analysis with four outputs.

Workflow

Step 1: Fetch and Parse News Content

Use web_fetch to extract article content from the provided URL.

Step 2: Apply Analytical Frameworks

Analyze the macroeconomic situation using these integrated frameworks (stored in references/):

1. Fed Policy Framework — dual mandate balance (employment vs. inflation)
2. Inflation Transmission — oil/commodity passthrough to CPI/PCE
3. Stagflationary Dynamics — growth slowdown + inflation rise scenarios
4. Central Bank Credibility — forecast revision patterns, forward guidance
5. Great Power Entrapment — geopolitical conflict impact on policy path

Step 3: Generate Structured Output

Produce analysis in this exact format:

## 1. Conclusion
[Clear thesis statement about central bank policy stance, inflation outlook, and policy bind. Include key decision metrics.]

## 2. Economic/Commodity Impact
| Factor | Current Status | Policy Implication |
|--------|---------------|-------------------|
| [Rate decision] | [Value] | [Implication for policy path] |
| [Inflation] | [Value] | [Implication for policy path] |
| [Growth] | [Value] | [Implication for policy path] |
| [Oil price] | [Value] | [Implication for policy path] |

## 3. Commodity Trading Odds
| Position | Recommendation | Rationale | Risk Factor |
|----------|---------------|-----------|-------------|
| [Asset 1] | [Overweight/Underweight/Neutral] | [1-sentence rationale] | [Key risk] |
| [Asset 2] | [Overweight/Underweight/Neutral] | [1-sentence rationale] | [Key risk] |
| [Asset 3] | [Overweight/Underweight/Neutral] | [1-sentence rationale] | [Key risk] |

**Key Risk:** [Single most important risk factor]

## 4. What's Next Can Be Happened?
**Ranked by likelihood:**

1. **[Scenario Name]** — X%  
   [2-3 sentence description including policy path and timeline]

2. **[Scenario Name]** — X%  
   [2-3 sentence description including policy path and timeline]

3. **[Scenario Name]** — X%  
   [2-3 sentence description including policy path and timeline]

4. **[Scenario Name]** — X%  
   [2-3 sentence description including policy path and timeline]

---

**Analysis anchors:** [Framework names: Fed policy framework, inflation transmission, stagflationary dynamics, etc.]

Framework Reference

Read references/frameworks.md for detailed analytical models when complex macroeconomic situations require deeper assessment.

Output Guidelines

• Be decisive — provide clear probabilities, not vague ranges
• Anchor to frameworks — cite specific indicators from the loaded models
• Market focus — always tie back to trading implications (bonds, currencies, commodities)
• Scenario-ranked — order policy scenarios by probability, not alphabetically
• 4-section format — Conclusion, Economic/Commodity Impact, Commodity Trading Odds, What's Next Can Be Happened