Startup Risk Radar — Failure Pattern Analysis

Framework from 1,749 dead startups and $535.4B burned capital. Source: loot-drop.io

The 7 Antipatterns

How to Use This Skill

When evaluating a startup idea or business model:

1. Read references/antipatterns.md for detailed pattern descriptions, mechanics, cognitive traps, and red flags
2. Read references/chain-reactions.md for how antipatterns cascade into each other
3. Score the idea against all 7 antipatterns using the assessment questions below
4. Identify the most likely failure cascade
5. Provide actionable recommendations

Quick Assessment (7 Questions)

For each antipattern, evaluate the startup on a 3-point scale: 🟢 Low risk / 🟡 Medium risk / 🔴 High risk

1. 🔮 Hallucination: Do potential customers pull out their wallets unprompted, or just say "sounds interesting"?
2. 🔥 Bonfire: If fundraising stopped tomorrow, could you reach profitability in 6 months?
3. ⚔️ Civil War: Do co-founders have a clear decision-making process for disagreements?
4. 🏴 Crushed: Is your roadmap driven by unique customer insights or by matching competitor features?
5. 🍋 Lemon: Can your core tech deliver at production scale without manual intervention?
6. ⚖️ Outlaw: Would full regulatory compliance destroy your unit economics?
7. 📉 Math Problem: At current fully-loaded costs + 25% improvement, do margins exceed 20%?

Output Format

Structure your analysis as:

## Startup Risk Assessment: [Name/Idea]

### Antipattern Scorecard
[Score each of 7 antipatterns: 🟢/🟡/🔴 with brief justification]

### Primary Risk: [Most dangerous antipattern]
[Detailed analysis of the most likely failure mode]

### Cascade Risk: [Chain reaction path]
[How the primary risk could trigger secondary failures]

### Red Flags Detected
[List specific red flags from the antipattern framework]

### Recommendations
[Actionable steps to mitigate identified risks]

Key Statistics by Sector

Most dangerous sectors (by total failures):

• Communication Services: 444 failures
• Consumer: 414 failures
• Information Technology: 402 failures
• Financials: 156 failures

Most common cause of death:

• Competition (51.5%) — over half of all startups die from being outgunned
• Unit Economics (15.4%) — the math never worked
• Ran Out of Cash (11.7%) — spending as if revenue is a formality
• No Market Need (11.6%) — building for a customer that doesn't exist