Prediction Market Smoke Test
This is a minimal publish-and-install test skill.
Use this skill when the user wants to:
- sanity-check whether a prediction market question is well-formed
- draft a quick trading thesis before opening a position
- verify that this skill can be installed from ClawHub
Quick Workflow
When this skill is used, follow this short workflow:
- Restate the market question in one sentence.
- Identify the resolution source and what event would count as a YES result.
- List the top 3 reasons the market may be mispriced.
- Give a one-paragraph bullish case and one-paragraph bearish case.
- End with a concise checklist:
- resolution source confirmed
- time to resolution understood
- major ambiguity checked
- current thesis stated clearly
Output Template
Use this structure when helpful:
Market Summary
- Question:
- YES means:
- Resolution source:
- Deadline:
Possible Edge
- Reason 1:
- Reason 2:
- Reason 3:
Bull Case
Bear Case
Final Checklist
- Resolution source confirmed
- Ambiguity reviewed
- Thesis written
Notes
- This skill is intentionally simple so it is easy to publish, install, and validate.
- After confirming this works through ClawHub, you can replace it with your real prediction-market skill.