Prediction Fair Value Template

This skill scans active Simmer-indexed markets matching a search query, compares the current market price to your fair probability, and places a trade only when the gap is large enough to justify action.

> This is a template. The default signal is a user-supplied fair probability plus a keyword market search.

> Remix it with your own model outputs, news signals, research pipeline, or external data.

> The skill handles discovery, sizing, context checks, redemption, and trade execution plumbing.

What It Does

On each run, the skill:

1. Calls Simmer briefing and auto-redeem.
2. Searches active markets using MARKET_QUERY.
3. Compares each market's current YES price to FAIR_PROBABILITY.
4. Buys YES when the market is under your fair value by at least MIN_EDGE.
5. Buys NO when the market is over your fair value by at least MIN_EDGE.
6. Sizes the position with simmer_sdk.sizing.size_position().
7. Checks market context before trading to avoid severe flip-flops, weak edge, or excessive slippage.
8. Defaults to dry-run unless you explicitly enable live trading.

Required Files

This skill follows Simmer's manual build pattern for ClawHub:

• SKILL.md
• clawhub.json
• trade_skill.py

Environment Variables

Credentials

• SIMMER_API_KEY (required): Simmer API key from your dashboard.
• WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY (optional): Only needed for external-wallet self-custody mode on supported venues.

Strategy Config

• MARKET_QUERY: Search term used to discover markets. Default: bitcoin
• FAIR_PROBABILITY: Your estimated YES probability from 0 to 1. Default: 0.60
• MIN_EDGE: Minimum pricing gap required to act. Default: 0.05
• MAX_MARKETS: Maximum number of markets to inspect per run. Default: 5
• MAX_SLIPPAGE_PCT: Skip trades if estimated slippage exceeds this threshold. Default: 0.15
• TRADING_VENUE: sim or polymarket. Default: sim
• SIMMER_ENABLE_LIVE: Set to true to allow live order placement in automations. Default: false

Safety Model

• Dry-run is the default.
• Every trade is tagged with source and skill_slug.
• Every trade includes public reasoning.
• Market context is checked before order placement.
• Sizing is based on bankroll and edge, not a hard-coded fixed stake.

Local Usage

Dry-run:

export SIMMER_API_KEY="sk_live_..."
python trade_skill.py

Live mode:

export SIMMER_API_KEY="sk_live_..."
python trade_skill.py --live

Custom thesis:

export MARKET_QUERY="fed rates"
export FAIR_PROBABILITY="0.72"
export MIN_EDGE="0.06"
export TRADING_VENUE="sim"
python trade_skill.py

Remix Ideas

• Replace FAIR_PROBABILITY with a model output.
• Use different fair probabilities by market category.
• Add external signals from a news API, a research pipeline, or your own classifier.
• Add stricter filters for time to resolution or liquidity.
• Change sizing thresholds to fit your risk tolerance.

Publishing

From inside this skill folder:

npx clawhub@latest publish . --slug prediction-fair-value-template --version 1.0.0

Always publish with an explicit --slug.