Polymarket Spread Sniper

Buys the underpriced side when the Polymarket AMM price diverges from the live CLOB orderbook midpoint. No outcome prediction — pure spread arbitrage. Exits automatically via take-profit or time-stop.

The Edge

Polymarket has two pricing mechanisms:

1. AMM — pool-based price, slower to update
2. CLOB — live orderbook, reflects real-money conviction

When they diverge by more than min_edge (default 3%), the AMM is mispriced. The skill buys the cheap side and exits when prices converge or the time window closes.

Quick Start

export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_...

# Dry run (SIM mode — safe, no real money)
python spread_sniper.py

# Live trading
python spread_sniper.py --live

# Show open positions with P&L
python spread_sniper.py --positions

# P&L summary (realized + unrealized)
python scripts/spread_pnl.py

# P&L history log
python scripts/spread_pnl.py --history

Configuration

All settings can be overridden via environment variables or tuned from the Simmer dashboard.

Exit Logic

Positions are checked on every scan:

• Take-profit: exits when CLOB has moved take_profit_pct × entry_edge toward fair value
• Time-stop: exits when time_stop_pct of the market's remaining window has elapsed since entry, or when <2h left regardless

P&L Tracking

# Snapshot: realized (from Simmer resolved API) + unrealized (open positions)
python scripts/spread_pnl.py

# Full history log
python scripts/spread_pnl.py --history

# Open positions detail
python scripts/spread_pnl.py --positions

Log appended to spread_pnl.log on each run. Cron-safe.

Files

spread_sniper.py        # Main bot — scan + entry + exit
config.json             # Runtime config overrides (takes precedence over env vars)
clawhub.json            # ClawHub + automaton config
scripts/
  spread_pnl.py         # P&L tracker (realized via Simmer API + unrealized)
  sim_redeem.py         # Redeem resolved SIM positions
spread_positions.json   # Local position journal
spread_daily.json       # Daily spend state
spread_pnl.log          # P&L snapshot log

Safety

• All credentials loaded from environment — no hardcoded secrets
• Daily spend cap prevents runaway deployment
• CLOB spread filter skips illiquid markets
• Price range filter (10%–90%) avoids near-certain / near-impossible positions
• Extensive keyword exclude list filters out esports, weather, and obscure football markets