Legal & Regulatory Trader

> This is a template.

> The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with probability-extreme detection — remix it with the data sources listed in the Edge Thesis below.

> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Legal prediction markets have enormous information asymmetry — most Polymarket retail participants don't read court filings or understand regulatory procedure. They price criminal convictions as coin flips when the actual DOJ conviction rate is ~97%. This skill encodes documented institutional base rates directly into conviction sizing.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Precedent Bias

1. Discover active legal and regulatory markets on Polymarket
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply precedent_bias() — multiplier based on documented legal/regulatory outcome statistics
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution

Precedent Bias (built-in, no API required)

Retail prices legal outcomes as coin flips. precedent_bias() corrects this using documented historical statistics:

Example: "Will X be convicted?" market at 25% after indictment → conviction 34% × 1.35x = 46% → $14. Retail prices this at 25%; base rate says 97%. That's the edge.

Why These Base Rates Hold

• DOJ plea rate: Federal prosecutors only indict when they have ~overwhelming evidence — they win 97%+ of cases taken to trial or plea
• EU Phase 2: The EC procedural calendar is legally defined — opening Phase 2 is a strong signal of serious concerns
• SCOTUS cert: The Court takes cases primarily to correct errors — ~70% reversal is a documented statistical pattern
• Class action: Discovery costs and litigation risk make settlement the rational outcome in ~90%+ of cases

Remix Signal Ideas

• CourtListener API: Free PACER docket API — monitor filing velocity as leading indicator before markets react
• SEC EDGAR enforcement: Track Wells Notice dates to anticipate formal action timing (avg 4–6 months)
• EU Competition docket: Phase 2 opening date + 13 months = almost exact closing date
• Courtroom View Network: Live trial feeds for real-time signal on verdict direction

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk