Global Elections & Democracy Trader

> This is a template.

> The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and election_bias() — remix it with the data sources listed below.

> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Global election markets on Polymarket have two layered structural edges that compound cleanly without any external API:

1. Electoral system type — Polymarket retail trades all elections as if they were US presidential races. They aren't. FPTP systems amplify poll leads into landslides; proportional representation systems make outright majorities near-impossible. Retail systematically misprices both.

1. Regional information lag — Polymarket is US-English-speaking. Wahlrecht.de updates German polling daily. DataFolha updates Brazilian tracking daily. Neither is read by the average Polymarket trader. The lag between a 3-point swing in a non-English aggregator and Polymarket repricing is 12–48 hours.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Election Bias

1. Discover active election and referendum markets on Polymarket
2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
3. Apply election_bias() — combines electoral system type with regional information lag
4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution

Election Bias (built-in, no API required)

Factor 1 — Electoral System Type

The PR Majority Rule — In proportional representation systems, a single party winning an outright majority is a statistical anomaly, not a plausible baseline. Germany's Bundestag, Sweden's Riksdag, Israel's Knesset, the Netherlands' Tweede Kamer — single-party majorities happen perhaps once per generation. Yet retail prices these markets at 15–30% because they project the US two-party binary onto a multi-party system. Every such market is a structural NO unless one party is polling above 45%, which essentially never happens in mature PR democracies.

Factor 2 — Regional Information Lag

Combined Examples

Keywords Monitored

election, referendum, vote, prime minister, chancellor, president,
Germany election, France election, Brazil election, India election,
UK election, Japan election, South Korea, Taiwan election, snap election,
coalition, majority, parliament, polling, exit poll, incumbent, runoff,
second round, Bundestag, Riksdag, Assemblée, Duma, Diet, Congress,
Lok Sabha, confidence vote, no confidence, hung parliament,
minority government, proportional representation, first past the post

Remix Signal Ideas

• Wahlrecht.de: German polling aggregator updated daily — compare to Polymarket for German election markets; the lag is often >24h and actionable
• Politico Europe Poll of Polls: Aggregated EU-wide polling — covers France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Poland simultaneously
• DataFolha / Quaest: Brazilian tracking polls in Portuguese — daily updates on presidential and state races
• Electoral Calculus MRP (UK): Constituency-level seat projections — translates raw polling to seat counts, far more predictive than national vote share alone

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk