> This is a template.
> The default signal is keyword discovery + on-chain data signals — remix it with DeFiLlama TVL feeds, GitHub commit velocity for quantum computing projects, robotics deployment trackers, or synthetic biology investment databases.
> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Emerging tech markets are among the highest-edge opportunities on Polymarket because most retail participants lack domain expertise. A trader with genuine technical knowledge in robotics, quantum computing, or DeFi holds massive informational advantage.
This skill covers 5 sub-categories:
domain_bias() multiplier — boost underappreciated domains, dampen hype-prone onesmax(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITIONDifferent emerging tech categories have systematic mispricing patterns. domain_bias() adjusts conviction based on known retail behavior in each domain:
| Domain | Bias | Why |
|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- |
| Metaverse / NFT | 0.70x | Media hype cycles inflate YES; most milestones miss |
| Humanoid robots | 0.75x | YouTube demos precede real deployments by 6–18 months |
| Quantum computing | 1.30x | arXiv progress is systematic; markets lag by weeks |
| Synthetic biology | 1.25x | Regulatory filings are public; market underweights precedent |
| DeFi / TVL | 1.20x | On-chain data is real-time; market repricing lags 2–6h |
| Other | 1.00x | No systematic bias detected |
Example: quantum market at 25% → conviction 34% × 1.3x = 44% → $11 position. Metaverse market at same price → 34% × 0.7x = 24% → $6 (conservative).
market.current_probability with TVL-implied probability — trade the divergence between on-chain data and market priceKEYWORDS = [
'Web3', 'DeFi', 'NFT', 'blockchain', 'metaverse', 'VR', 'AR',
'robot', 'humanoid', 'autonomous delivery', 'Boston Dynamics',
'Tesla Optimus', 'Figure robot', 'warehouse automation',
'quantum', 'qubit', 'IBM quantum', 'Google quantum',
'synthetic biology', 'lab-grown meat', 'cultivated meat',
'precision fermentation', 'Solana', 'Ethereum', 'TVL',
]
| Parameter | Default | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ----------- | --------- | ------- |
| Max position size | $25 USDC | Emerging tech markets are volatile |
| Min market volume | $2,000 | Some niche markets start illiquid |
| Max bid-ask spread | 15% | Accept wider spreads for edge markets |
| Min days to resolution | 14 | Technical milestones need longer lead time |
| Max open positions | 8 | Diversify across sub-categories |
| Category | Edge Source | Typical Market Bias |
|---|---|---|
| ---------- | ------------- | --------------------- |
| Quantum Computing | Academic paper lag (arXiv 6–24h before news) | Retail underestimates IBM progress |
| Humanoid Robots | YouTube demo videos precede deployments | Fan hype overprices Tesla Optimus |
| DeFi/TVL | On-chain data is real-time | Markets lag DeFiLlama by 2–6h |
| Lab-Grown Meat | Regulatory filings public before decisions | Market underweights FDA precedent |
| NFT Markets | OpenSea/Blur volume APIs | Volume data available before price consensus |
clawhub install polymarket-emerging-tech-trader
Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.
Runs every 15 minutes (/15 *). Emerging tech events are infrequent but high-impact when they occur.
The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
| ---------- | ------ | ---------------- |
python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None |
| Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None |
python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |
The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| ---------- | ---------- | ------- |
SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority — keep this credential private. Do not place a live-capable key in any environment where automated code could call --live. |
All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| ---------- | --------- | --------- |
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 25 | Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) |
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 2000 | Min market volume filter (USD) |
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.15 | Max bid-ask spread (0.15 = 15%) |
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 14 | Min days until market resolves |
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 8 | Max concurrent open positions |
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value |
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value |
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |
simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.
Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.
共 3 个版本