Polymarket Edge Trader

> This is a template. The default signal is a user-supplied fair YES probability for markets matching MARKET_QUERY —

> remix it with your own model output, external API, or ML prediction.

> The skill handles all the plumbing: market discovery, context safeguards, position sizing, trade execution,

> operator summaries, auto-redemption, and AION trade tagging. Your job is to provide the alpha.

Setup

Install the AION SDK:

pip install aionmarket-sdk

Key Safeguards (Built-In)

• Risk Alerts Guard: Skips new entries if briefing reports active risk alerts; runs de-risk logic instead.
• Flip-Flop Detection: Rejects markets with excessive trading reversals or discipline warnings from context.
• Slippage Enforcement: Enforces maximum estimated slippage threshold before showing candidates.
• Market Context Check: Fetches warnings, edge analysis, and trading discipline from AION API; skips if risk detected.
• Kelly Sizing: Uses Kelly-fraction bankroll model with configurable multiplier (AION_KELLY_MULTIPLIER) for position control.
• Auto-Redeem: Automatically claims payouts from resolved markets at each cycle start.
• Dry-Run Default: Only submits live orders when --live is explicitly passed with signed order payload.
• Public Reasoning: Every trade includes reasoning tied to edge signal, market state, and risk metrics.
• Jitter Polling: Daemon mode (--daemon) uses randomized wait intervals to avoid synchronized order bursts.

What It Does

• Scans active AION Polymarket markets matching MARKET_QUERY
• Scores each candidate against MODEL_PROBABILITY
• Picks the market with the largest absolute edge
• Skips trades when edge is too small, slippage is too high, briefing risk alerts are active, or AION warns about flip-flopping
• Sizes the position with a Kelly-style bankroll model
• Prints an operator summary with risk state, decisions, and order updates
• Executes through AionMarketClient.trade() when you explicitly provide --live and a signed order payload

Defaults

• MARKET_QUERY=bitcoin
• MODEL_PROBABILITY=0.60
• TARGET_VENUE=polymarket
• MAX_MARKETS=25
• MAX_STAKE_USD=50
• MIN_EDGE=0.03
• MAX_SLIPPAGE_PCT=0.15
• STARTING_BALANCE_USD=1000
• AION_BASE_URL=https://pm-t1.bxingupdate.com/bvapi
• AION_KELLY_MULTIPLIER=0.25
• AION_MIN_EV=0.03
• WALLET_ADDRESS=
• AION_SIGNED_ORDER_JSON=

How To Run

Dry-run mode (default — no orders submitted):

python edge_trader.py

Scan a different market with custom probability:

python edge_trader.py --query "fed" --probability 0.64

Show ranked candidates before selecting best:

python edge_trader.py --show-candidates

Daemon mode with jitter (for cron/automaton orchestration):

python edge_trader.py --daemon --poll-interval 60

Live trading (requires --live, wallet address, and pre-signed order JSON):

WALLET_ADDRESS=0xYourWallet \
AION_SIGNED_ORDER_JSON='{"maker":"...","signer":"...","taker":"0x0000000000000000000000000000000000000000","tokenId":"...","makerAmount":"...","takerAmount":"...","side":"BUY","expiration":"...","signature":"...","salt":"...","signatureType":0,"nonce":"...","feeRateBps":"0"}' \
python edge_trader.py --query "bitcoin" --probability 0.58 --live

Required Credentials

• AION_API_KEY is always required
• WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY is optional and only needed for self-custody Polymarket trading
• WALLET_ADDRESS is required for user-scoped briefing and live order submission
• AION_SIGNED_ORDER_JSON is only required for live order submission, because the AION SDK expects a complete signed order payload

Remix Ideas

The skill's plumbing is fixed (safeguards, sizing, execution, summaries). Your alpha is:

Signal replacement:

• Replace MODEL_PROBABILITY with your own ML model output, external API call, or ensemble forecast.
• Swap discover_markets() for briefing.opportunityMarkets (pre-curated high-quality markets).
• Integrate a multi-model ensemble: call multiple probability endpoints and aggregate them.
• Use sentiment analysis, weather data, or on-chain metrics to derive fair probability.

Advanced position management:

• Add sell logic: close existing positions when signal flips.
• Implement rebalance logic around target portfolio weights.
• Use get_bankroll() to scale position size dynamically with account growth.
• Add staggered entry: split Kelly fraction across multiple limit orders at different prices.

Extended safeguards:

• Tighten MIN_EDGE for high-frequency strategies; relax for lower-frequency.
• Add custom risk filters: skip markets with high volatility, thin liquidity, or specific conditions.
• Extend auto-redeem to other venues (Kalshi, etc.) by removing venue checks.
• Integrate external alerts: pause trading if certain conditions are met from other systems.

Operational tweaks:

• Adjust AION_KELLY_MULTIPLIER for more conservative or aggressive sizing.
• Use --max-slippage-pct and MAX_STAKE_USD as dynamic parameters from a config file.
• Add custom telemetry: log trade decisions to your own database or reporting system.
• Build a CLI wrapper that spins up multiple skill instances with different queries.