Poly Tradebot

Overview

Poly-tradebot automates the news-to-trading-analysis workflow: fetches CNBC world news, filters by relevant tags (us, iran, war, market, the fed), classifies each article as geopolitics or macroeconomics, invokes the appropriate specialized skill (geopolitics-expert or the-fed-agent), discovers related Polymarket markets, and produces a unified trading analysis table with market data and expert recommendations.

Workflow

1. Fetch CNBC World News

poly-tradebot fetch

Fetches articles from https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world using web_fetch tool. Extracts at least 3 articles matching tags: us, iran, war, market, the fed.

Article Selection Criteria:

• Headline or content contains at least one tag keyword
• Published within last 24-48 hours (freshness)
• Substantive content (not brief mentions)

2. Classify Article Topic

For each fetched article, classify as:

3. Invoke Specialized Skill

For Geopolitics Articles:

geopolitics-expert <article_url>

Produces 5-section output:

1. Conclusion
2. Economic/Commodity Impact
3. Commodity Trading Odds
4. War Duration Categorization
5. Termination Scenarios

For Macroeconomics Articles:

the-fed-agent <article_url>

Produces 4-section output:

1. Conclusion
2. Economic/Commodity Impact
3. Commodity Trading Odds
4. What's Next Can Be Happened? (policy path scenarios)

4. Discover Polymarket Markets

For each analyzed article, search Polymarket for related prediction markets:

web_search query="<topic> Polymarket market" site:polymarket.com
web_fetch url=<polymarket_market_url> extractMode=markdown

Extract market metadata:

• Market Title
• Market URL
• Resolve Date
• Current Odds (Yes/No probabilities)
• Trading Volume (24h + total volume)

Search Strategy:

• Use article keywords (e.g., "Iran war", "Fed rate hike", "Oil prices")
• Filter to active/open markets
• Volume Filter: Only include markets with total volume > $1,000,000
• Odds Filter: Only include markets with Yes% probability < 70% (contrarian edge)
• Minimum Markets: Discover at least 10 qualifying markets across all articles
• Prioritize high-liquidity markets for reliable odds

5. Output Per News Article

Each article produces a standalone analysis file saved to memory/:

• Geopolitics: memory/geopolitics-YYYY-MM-DD-cnbc-.md
• Macroeconomics: memory/macro-YYYY-MM-DD-cnbc-.md

Output Format: Follows exact skill output format (geopolitics: 5 sections, macro: 4 sections) PLUS a unified trading table.

6. Unified Trading Table Output

After all articles are analyzed and Polymarket markets discovered, produce a summary table:

Column Definitions:

1. Market Title: Polymarket market name
2. Market URL: Direct link to the Polymarket market
3. Resolve Date: When the market resolves
4. Market Odds: Current Polymarket probability (Yes%)
5. Volume: Total trading volume (must be > $1,000,000)
6. Recommendation: Bold YES or NO based on expert analysis
7. Reason: Concise reasoning from geopolitics-expert or the-fed-agent (e.g., "75% forever war probability", "65% single 25bp cut only")

Output Requirements:

• Minimum Markets: At least 10 markets in the table
• Volume Filter: All markets must have total trading volume > $1,000,000
• Odds Filter: All markets must have Yes% probability < 70% (contrarian opportunities)

Recommendation Logic:

• YES: Expert analysis supports the market outcome (expert probability > 60%)
• NO: Expert analysis contradicts the market outcome (expert probability < 40%)
• Include the key probability and rationale from the expert skill output

Usage Examples

Example 1: Full Pipeline Run

poly-tradebot

Fetches 3+ CNBC articles, classifies each, invokes appropriate skills, discovers Polymarket markets, outputs unified trading table (Yes/No recommendations with expert reasoning).

Example 2: Re-run Workflow

poly-tradebot fetch

Re-fetches fresh articles from CNBC world page, re-runs classification, analysis, and market discovery pipeline.

Example 3: Analyze Specific URL

poly-tradebot analyze <url>

Classifies and analyzes a single article URL, discovers related Polymarket markets, outputs Yes/No recommendation with expert reasoning.

Example 4: Output Table Only

poly-tradebot table

Regenerates the unified trading table from existing memory analyses without re-fetching articles.

Output Summary

After pipeline completion, produces ONLY the Unified Trading Table:

Format Rules:

• Table only — no headers, no commentary, no additional sections
• Minimum Markets: At least 10 markets in the table
• Volume Filter: All markets must have total trading volume > $1,000,000
• Odds Filter: All markets must have Yes% probability < 70% (contrarian opportunities)
• Recommendation: Bold YES or NO based on expert analysis probability
• Reason: Concise expert rationale (e.g., "75% forever war probability", "65% single 25bp cut only")
• Market Odds: Current Polymarket Yes% probability
• Volume: Display total trading volume (e.g., "$2.4M")
• Saved to memory/poly-tradebot-table-YYYY-MM-DD.md

Skill Dependencies

• geopolitics-expert — Required for geopolitics articles
• the-fed-agent — Required for macroeconomics articles
• web_fetch — Built-in tool for article retrieval
• web_search — Built-in tool for Polymarket market discovery (optional)

Resources

references/

• classification_rules.md — Topic classification heuristics
• output_templates.md — Format templates per skill type (geopolitics: 5 sections, macro: 4 sections)

scripts/

• fetch_cnbc.py — Article fetching and parsing utility
• classify_topic.py — Geopolitics vs macroeconomics classifier

Skill Version: 3.1

Created: 2026-03-17

Updated: 2026-03-18 (v3.1: odds filter <70% for contrarian edge; v3.0: minimum 10 markets, volume filter >$1M, added Volume column)

Author: poly-tradebot skill creator