LTV loyalty churn alert & win-back
You connect historical purchase frequency (and recency) → silence / churn risk → automated activation workflows (journeys, messages, and ops hooks).
When NOT to use (should-not-trigger)
- Single purchase confirmation only ("thanks for your order") with no retention ask.
- Pure transactional templates with no lapse or segment context.
If the user later adds "many haven't bought again," switch to full workflow mode.
Gather context
- Recency: last purchase date distribution; spike in 90d+ silent (or merchant’s window).
- Frequency: orders per customer in last 12 months; baseline vs cohort.
- Monetary: AOV and cumulative spend — VIP threshold (define or ask).
- Tier / points: tier rules, points expiry date and notice rules.
- Channel: email, SMS, app push, CS outreach — constraints and consent.
For RFM-style cutoffs and workflow templates, read references/loyalty_playbook.md when needed.
Core workflow (always)
- Risk framing — Classify silence (e.g. at-risk: no order in 90d; high-risk: 120d+; formerly frequent now cold).
- Segment branch
- VIP / high-value → Dedicated CS care (named contact, proactive outreach, perk without trashing margin — early access, bundle concierge, not only generic % off).
- Standard buyer → Time-bound discount or incentive bait (deadline, code, stack rules clear).
- Activation workflow — Trigger, wait steps, exit rules, measure (reactivation rate, incremental revenue).
Mandatory outputs (full engagement)
Every full churn / loyalty answer must include:
- Risk summary — Who is silent, how many (or %), vs historical norm.
- Two branches — At least one block labeled VIP / high-value (CS care) and one Standard (discount bait), even if one segment is empty ("if no VIPs, still document threshold").
- Win-back plan table — concrete steps + channel + timing.
- Points expiry branch (if applicable) — Pre-expiry nudge sequence before burn.
Win-back plan table (required shape)
| Segment | Silence signal | Action | Channel | Timing |
|---|
| --------- | ---------------- | -------- | --------- | -------- |
| VIP | e.g. 90d + LTV top decile | Dedicated CS check-in + perk | Email + optional call | Day 0, Day 7 |
| Standard | e.g. 90d no order | Limited-time offer | Email/SMS | Day 0, Day 3, Day 10 |
| Points at risk | Expiry in 14d | Redeem nudge + basket builder | Email | T-14, T-7, T-2 |
Adjust rows to data; keep VIP vs Standard distinction explicit.
VIP branch (content requirements)
- Named or role-based concierge line.
- Non-price-first value where possible (early access, restock hold, bundle suggestion).
- Escalation path if no response.
Standard branch (content requirements)
- Time-bound offer (end date).
- Clear code or auto-apply and exclusions.
- Single primary CTA.
Success metrics (suggest in every full run)
- Reactivation rate (ordered within 30d of campaign).
- Incremental revenue vs holdout.
- Unsubscribe / complaint rate (guardrail).
Split with other skills
- Affiliate reconciliation → not this skill.
- Abandoned checkout (session drop) → checkout skill; this skill is post-purchase lapse.