Kalshi F1 Elimination Trader

> This is a template.

> The default signal uses static championship standings -- remix it with live F1 API data for real-time elimination detection as races complete.

> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

As the F1 season progresses, drivers become mathematically eliminated from the championship. A driver is eliminated when their maximum possible points (current + MAX_POINTS_PER_RACE * remaining races) is less than the leader's current total. Yet Kalshi markets often still price eliminated drivers above 0% -- this is free money.

Key advantages:

• Mathematical certainty -- elimination is a provable fact, not a prediction
• Low entry edge -- even 3% market price on an eliminated driver is pure edge
• Markets lag reality -- retail traders forget to update stale positions
• Zero-risk thesis -- the only risk is execution/timing, not model error

Signal Logic

Elimination Detection

1. Track championship standings (points per driver)
2. Calculate remaining races in the season
3. For each driver: max_possible = current_points + 26 * remaining_races
4. Driver is eliminated if max_possible < leader_points
5. If eliminated AND market price > entry_edge -> BUY NO

Points per Race

| Component | Points |

|-----------|--------|

| Win | 25 |

| Fastest lap | 1 |

| Max per race | 26 |

Conviction-Based Sizing

• conviction = min(market_price / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Higher market price on eliminated driver = more conviction = larger position

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes |

|-----------|---------|-------|

| Entry edge | 3% | Min market price on eliminated driver to trade |

| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |

| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |

| Max trades per run | 5 | Rate limiting |

| Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |

| Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-f1-elimination-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |

|----------|------|----------------|

| python trader.py | Dry run | None |

| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |

| python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes |

|----------|----------|-------|

| SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |

| SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

| Variable | Default | Purpose |

|----------|---------|---------|

| SIMMER_F1_ELIM_ENTRY_EDGE | 0.03 | Min market price on eliminated driver to trade |

| SIMMER_F1_ELIM_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level |

| SIMMER_F1_ELIM_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade |

| SIMMER_F1_ELIM_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 5 | Max trades per execution cycle |

| SIMMER_F1_ELIM_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping trade |

| SIMMER_F1_ELIM_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets