Kalshi ETH Merge Momentum Trader

> This is a template.

> The default signal uses a static 0.5% annual burn rate -- remix it with live ultrasound.money data, dynamic burn rate tracking, or EIP-1559 base fee analysis.

> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Post-merge Ethereum burns approximately 0.5% of its total supply annually through the EIP-1559 fee burn mechanism. When gas usage exceeds issuance to validators, ETH becomes net deflationary. This skill computes a deflation-adjusted fair value and trades when markets underprice this structural supply reduction.

Key advantages:

• Structural thesis -- supply reduction is mechanical, not speculative
• Time-sensitive -- longer time horizons amplify the deflation effect
• Verifiable -- burn rate data is on-chain and public

Signal Logic

Deflation Model

1. Compute deflation-adjusted price: adj = base (1 + net_deflation days/365 * 0.5)
2. Convert price target to fair probability using logistic model
3. Compare fair probability to market price
4. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Remix Ideas

• Live burn rate: Track ultrasound.money for real-time ETH burn data
• Dynamic issuance: Adjust for changing validator count
• Gas price correlation: Higher gas = higher burn = more deflation
• Macro overlay: Fed rate expectations affect crypto demand

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes |

|-----------|---------|-------|

| Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade |

| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |

| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |

| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |

| Annual burn rate | 0.5% | ETH supply burn rate assumption |

| Base ETH price | $3500 | Current ETH price baseline |

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-eth-merge-momentum-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |

|----------|------|----------------|

| python trader.py | Dry run | None |

| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |

| python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes |

|----------|----------|-------|

| SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |

| SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

| Variable | Default | Purpose |

|----------|---------|---------|

| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_ENTRY_EDGE | 0.10 | Min divergence to trigger trade |

| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level |

| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade |

| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Max trades per execution cycle |

| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping (15%) |

| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |

| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BURN_PCT | 0.5 | Annual ETH supply burn rate (%) |

| SIMMER_ETH_MERGE_BASE_PRICE | 3500 | Current ETH price baseline ($) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.