Kalshi Economic Nowcast Trader

> This is a template.

> The default signal uses the Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast point estimate and standard deviation to price CPI bins -- remix it with real-time nowcast scraping, multiple nowcast sources, or Bayesian updating as data arrives.

> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Kalshi lists CPI bin markets ("Will CPI be between 0.2% and 0.3%?"). This skill prices each bin using the Cleveland Fed's CPI Nowcast as the mean of a normal distribution, then trades when the market price diverges from the model probability.

Key advantages:

• Cleveland Fed Nowcast is free and public -- updated regularly with high accuracy
• Normal distribution is well-calibrated for CPI -- historically fits actual outcomes
• Multiple bins per release -- diversified signal across the distribution

Signal Logic

Nowcast-to-Bin Model

1. Load Cleveland Fed CPI Nowcast estimate and standard deviation
2. Compute P(CPI in [low, high]) = Phi(z_high) - Phi(z_low) for each bin
3. Compare model probability to Kalshi market price
4. Trade when |model - market| >= entry_edge

Example (with defaults: estimate=0.3%, stddev=0.15%)

| Bin | Model P | Market P | Edge | Action |

|-----|---------|----------|------|--------|

| 0.1%-0.2% | 9.2% | 15% | -5.8% | Hold |

| 0.2%-0.3% | 34.1% | 20% | +14.1% | BUY YES |

| 0.4%-0.5% | 9.2% | 22% | -12.8% | BUY NO |

Remix Ideas

• Live nowcast scraper: Auto-refresh from Cleveland Fed website
• Multi-source ensemble: Average Cleveland Fed, NY Fed, and Atlanta Fed nowcasts
• Bayesian updates: Incorporate PPI, import prices, and other leading indicators
• Volatility scaling: Widen stddev near data release dates

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes |

|-----------|---------|-------|

| Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade |

| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |

| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |

| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |

| Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |

| Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-econ-nowcast-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |

|----------|------|----------------|

| python trader.py | Dry run | None |

| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |

| python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes |

|----------|----------|-------|

| SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |

| SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

| Variable | Default | Purpose |

|----------|---------|---------|

| SIMMER_ECON_NOW_ENTRY_EDGE | 0.10 | Min divergence between nowcast model and market to trigger trade |

| SIMMER_ECON_NOW_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level |

| SIMMER_ECON_NOW_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade |

| SIMMER_ECON_NOW_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Max trades per execution cycle |

| SIMMER_ECON_NOW_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%) |

| SIMMER_ECON_NOW_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.