Kalshi Econ Fed Link Trader

> This is a template.

> The default signal uses a static CPI-to-Fed sensitivity table -- remix it with live CME FedWatch data, yield curve signals, or Taylor Rule models.

> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

CPI data and Fed rate decisions are deeply linked. This skill reads CPI bin market prices to estimate the current CPI level, then uses a DATA_SENSITIVITY table to compute fair probabilities for Fed rate cut/hold/hike markets. When the Fed market price diverges from the model, trade the edge.

Key advantages:

• Cross-market signal -- uses information from one market type to trade another
• Fundamental economic linkage -- CPI-to-Fed is the most documented macro relationship
• DATA_SENSITIVITY table -- calibrated from historical Fed reaction function
• No external data needed -- all inputs come from Kalshi market prices

Signal Logic

CPI-to-Fed Linkage Model

1. Scan CPI bin markets and extract probability-weighted expected CPI level
2. Look up model Fed probabilities from DATA_SENSITIVITY table
3. Interpolate between table entries for precise CPI levels
4. Compare model probability to Fed market price
5. Trade when |model - market| >= entry_edge

DATA_SENSITIVITY Table

| CPI Level | P(Cut) | P(Hold) | P(Hike) |

|-----------|--------|---------|---------|

| 1.0% | 85% | 12% | 3% |

| 2.0% | 55% | 38% | 7% |

| 2.5% | 20% | 65% | 15% |

| 3.0% | 5% | 55% | 40% |

| 4.0% | 1% | 24% | 75% |

| 5.0% | 0% | 10% | 90% |

Conviction-Based Sizing

• conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0
• size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)
• Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD

Remix Ideas

• CME FedWatch: Compare model to CME futures-implied Fed probabilities
• Yield curve signal: Add 2y-10y spread as additional Fed predictor
• Taylor Rule: Replace sensitivity table with formal Taylor Rule computation
• Real-time CPI nowcast: Use Cleveland Fed nowcast instead of bin prices

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes |

|-----------|---------|-------|

| Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade |

| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |

| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |

| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |

| Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |

| Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-econ-fed-link-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |

|----------|------|----------------|

| python trader.py | Dry run | None |

| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |

| python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes |

|----------|----------|-------|

| SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |

| SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

| Variable | Default | Purpose |

|----------|---------|---------|

| SIMMER_ECON_FEDLINK_ENTRY_EDGE | 0.10 | Min divergence between model and market to trigger trade |

| SIMMER_ECON_FEDLINK_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level |

| SIMMER_ECON_FEDLINK_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade |

| SIMMER_ECON_FEDLINK_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Max trades per execution cycle |

| SIMMER_ECON_FEDLINK_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%) |

| SIMMER_ECON_FEDLINK_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.