Kalshi Crypto Monotonicity Trader

> This is a template.

> The default signal enforces monotonicity on crypto price-level bins -- remix it with real-time order book data, implied volatility surfaces, or cross-exchange price feeds.

> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Crypto price-level markets on Kalshi price "Will BTC be above $X?" for various thresholds. By definition, P(BTC > $110k) >= P(BTC > $120k) because the first event subsumes the second. When the market violates this, we capture the arbitrage by buying the underpriced contract and selling the overpriced one.

Key advantages:

• Pure math arbitrage -- no model or opinion needed, just logical consistency
• Works for BTC and ETH -- any asset with multiple price-level markets
• Self-correcting -- violations close quickly, so early detection matters

Signal Logic

Monotonicity Check

1. Fetch all crypto price-level markets (BTC above $X, ETH above $Y)
2. Group by asset, sort by price level ascending
3. Verify P(above lower level) >= P(above higher level) for all pairs
4. When violation exceeds violation_threshold, generate paired trades

Example (with defaults)

| Market | Level | Market P | Expected | Violation |

|--------|-------|----------|----------|-----------|

| BTC > $100k | $100,000 | 45% | >= 35% | -- |

| BTC > $110k | $110,000 | 35% | >= 20% | -- |

| BTC > $120k | $120,000 | 38% | <= 35% | 3% |

In the last row, P(>$120k) = 38% > P(>$110k) = 35%, violating monotonicity by 3%.

Remix Ideas

• Order book depth: Weight violations by available liquidity at each level
• Implied vol surface: Use violation patterns to infer mispriced implied volatility
• Cross-exchange arb: Compare Kalshi levels to Deribit options strikes

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes |

|-----------|---------|-------|

| Violation threshold | 3% | Min probability gap to trigger trade |

| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |

| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |

| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |

| Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |

| Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-crypto-monotonicity-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |

|----------|------|----------------|

| python trader.py | Dry run | None |

| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |

| python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes |

|----------|----------|-------|

| SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |

| SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

| Variable | Default | Purpose |

|----------|---------|---------|

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_VIOLATION_THRESHOLD | 0.03 | Min probability gap between adjacent levels to trigger trade |

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level |

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade |

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Max trades per execution cycle |

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%) |

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_MONO_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.