Kalshi Crypto Correlation Trader

> This is a template.

> The default signal uses a static BTC/ETH beta of 1.3 -- remix it with rolling correlation windows, multi-asset cointegration, or real-time price feed APIs.

> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

BTC and ETH are highly correlated, but ETH markets on Kalshi lag BTC moves by hours. This skill monitors BTC price-level markets as a leading indicator, computes ETH fair values using beta=1.3, and trades when ETH markets have not yet adjusted.

Key advantages:

• Well-documented correlation -- BTC/ETH beta is stable around 1.3
• ETH lags BTC -- retail-dominated Kalshi ETH markets update slowly
• Cross-asset signal -- uses BTC as a free leading indicator for ETH trades

Signal Logic

Correlation Model

1. Fetch BTC and ETH price-level markets
2. Compute BTC sentiment from average market probabilities
3. Apply beta=1.3 to derive ETH fair value adjustment
4. Compare adjusted fair value to ETH market price
5. Trade when |fair - market| >= entry_edge

Remix Ideas

• Rolling beta: Compute 30-day rolling BTC/ETH beta from price data
• Multi-asset: Add SOL, AVAX correlations for broader signal
• Real-time feeds: Use CoinGecko/Binance API for live price correlation
• Regime detection: Different beta in bull vs bear markets

Risk Parameters

| Parameter | Default | Notes |

|-----------|---------|-------|

| Entry edge | 10% | Min fair-vs-market divergence to trade |

| Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this |

| Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market |

| Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting |

| Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds |

| Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default |

Installation & Setup

clawhub install kalshi-crypto-correlation-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY and SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY environment variables.

Cron Schedule

Cron is set to null -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |

|----------|------|----------------|

| python trader.py | Dry run | None |

| Cron / automaton | Dry run | None |

| python trader.py --live | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC |

The automaton cron is set to null -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

| Variable | Required | Notes |

|----------|----------|-------|

| SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. |

| SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. |

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes.

| Variable | Default | Purpose |

|----------|---------|---------|

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_ENTRY_EDGE | 0.10 | Min divergence between fair value and market to trigger trade |

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_EXIT_THRESHOLD | 0.45 | Sell position when price reaches this level |

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_MAX_POSITION_USD | 5.00 | Max USDC per trade |

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN | 3 | Max trades per execution cycle |

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_SLIPPAGE_MAX | 0.15 | Max slippage before skipping (0.15 = 15%) |

| SIMMER_CRYPTO_CORR_MIN_LIQUIDITY | 0 | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) |

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.