Directional momentum scoring for 1-hour crypto candles with Polymarket binary market integration.
Each signal contributes to the composite score:
| Signal | Bullish (+) | Bearish (-) | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| -------- | ------------ | ------------ | -------- |
| RSI | <40 oversold | >70 overbought | ±1 |
| RSI divergence | Bull div | Bear div | ±2 |
| MACD cross | Bullish cross | Bearish cross | ±1 |
| MACD histogram | Rising | Falling | ±1 |
| EMA cross | EMA20>EMA50 | EMA20| ±1 | |
| EMA200 | Price above | Price below | ±1 |
| Bollinger | Near lower (oversold) | Near upper (overbought) | ±1 |
| OBV trend | Rising (accumulation) | Falling (distribution) | ±1 |
| OBV divergence | Bull div | Bear div | ±2 |
| Volume | High volume on move | Low volume | ±1 |
Combine momentum score with Polymarket market odds:
# Edge formula
our_prob = 0.50 + (momentum_score * 0.05) # score 6 = 80% confidence
market_prob_up = polymarket_up_price # e.g. 0.35 (35% UP consensus)
edge = our_prob - market_prob_up # e.g. 0.80 - 0.35 = 45% edge!
# Bet when:
# - abs(momentum_score) >= 3
# - abs(edge) >= 0.10 (10%)
# - market is fresh (<30 min old)
# - USDC.e balance >= $5
Highest-EV Polymarket plays:
Example: SOL score=+4, Polymarket DOWN 80% → buy UP at 0.20 → if wins: 5x return
{
"asset": "BTC",
"score": 3,
"rsi": 64.9,
"rsi_status": "neutral",
"macd_hist": 10.39,
"macd_direction": "rising",
"obv_trend": "rising",
"bb_pct": 0.72,
"ema_cross": "bullish",
"bias": "BULLISH",
"confidence_pct": 65,
"polymarket_edge": {
"btc_4pm_et": { "market_up": 0.515, "our_p": 0.65, "edge": 0.135, "direction": "UP" }
}
}
BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, ATOM, ADA, SUI, LTC, NEAR, AVAX, BNB, LINK, DOT, TRX, DOGE
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