| # | Capability | Input | Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| --- | ----------- | ------- | -------- |
| 1 | Central Bank Policy Monitor | Bank(s) + time horizon | Current rate, forward guidance, dot-plot/rate-path, meeting calendar, market-implied probabilities |
| 2 | Macroeconomic Dashboard | Country(ies) + indicators | GDP growth, CPI, unemployment, PMI, trade balance, debt/GDP, FX reserves — with trend arrows |
| 3 | Cross-Asset Market Brief | Asset class(es) + region | Price action, YTD performance, volatility, fund flows, positioning, key catalysts |
| 4 | Yield Curve & Recession Signal | Country | 2s10s spread, 3m10y spread, near-term forward spread, historical recession lead time, probability estimate |
| 5 | Currency Fair-Value Analysis | Currency pair | PPP estimate, REER deviation, Big Mac Index, FEER, carry-to-risk ratio, positioning (CFTC COT) |
| 6 | Equity Valuation Scanner | Index / sector / stock | PE (trailing/forward), EV/EBITDA, PEG, dividend yield, vs. 5Y avg, vs. peers, DuPont decomposition |
| 7 | Commodity Supply-Demand Outlook | Commodity | Inventory levels, production forecasts, demand drivers, cost curve, geopolitical risk overlay |
| 8 | Crypto Market Intelligence | Token / sector | On-chain metrics (active addresses, TVL, hash rate), regulatory developments, institutional flow, correlation to risk assets |
| 9 | Fixed Income Relative Value | Bond / maturity range | Yield, duration, convexity, OAS (credit), breakeven inflation (TIPS), cross-market spread |
| 10 | Global Risk Matrix | Time horizon | VIX/VSTOXX, CDS spreads, EMBI spread, financial conditions indices, geopolitical risk index, tail-risk scenario |
User Query
│
├─ [Step 1] Classify query → asset class(es) + geography + time horizon + analysis type
│
├─ [Step 2] Source selection:
│ └─ Macro: IMF, World Bank, OECD, Trading Economics
│ └─ Central banks: Fed (FRED), ECB (SDW), BIS
│ └─ Markets: Investing.com, Yahoo Finance, CoinGecko
│ └─ Commodities: WGC, OPEC MOMR
│
├─ [Step 3] Data retrieval + cross-validation (≥2 sources for key metrics)
│
├─ [Step 4] Apply relevant framework (DCF, DuPont, PPP, yield curve model)
│
├─ [Step 5] Generate structured output with data vintage, source URLs
│
└─ [Step 6] Risk disclosure: flag data gaps, model limitations, non-investment-advice disclaimer
| Bank | Current Rate | Last Change | Next Meeting | Market-Implied Path | Hawkish/Dovish Bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ------ | ------------- | ------------- | -------------- | --------------------- | --------------------- |
| Fed | X.XX% | ±XXbp (Date) | Date | CME FedWatch probabilities | ... |
| ECB | X.XX% | ... | ... | ... | ... |
| Indicator | US | EU | CN | JP | IN | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ----------- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ------- |
| GDP Growth (YoY%) | ↑↓→ | |||||
| CPI (YoY%) | ||||||
| Unemployment (%) | ||||||
| Mfg PMI | ||||||
| 10Y Yield (%) |
| Pair | Spot | PPP Fair Value | Misvaluation % | REER Deviation | Carry (1Y) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ------ | ------ | --------------- | ---------------- | ---------------- | ------------ | -------- |
| EUR/USD | Over/Under/Fair |
User: "Compare Fed vs ECB vs BoJ policy outlook for H2 2026"
Output: Rate path table with market-implied probabilities; divergence chart narrative; FX implications (EUR/USD, USD/JPY).
User: "What's the recession probability for the US right now?"
Output: Yield curve spreads (2s10s, 3m10y, near-term forward), Sahm Rule indicator, LEI trend, consensus probability from surveys, historical context.
User: "Gold price outlook for next 6 months"
Output: Real yield correlation, central bank buying trends, ETF flows, technical levels, geopolitical risk premium, consensus range.
Data Base: references/finance_sources.json — 12 data sources, 8 central banks, 9 economic indicators, 5 asset classes, 6 valuation frameworks.
Last Updated: June 2026
Free Tier: Available. This skill aggregates public financial data; no proprietary terminal data accessed.
（内容由AI生成，仅供参考）
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